Will Gustavo Alfaro’s team manage to create another surprise at the FIFA World Cup? We’re looking forward to Saturday’s Round of 16 with our Paraguay vs France prediction and preview.
Paraguay vs France: key information
- France are the big favourites, beating Paraguay in 90 minutes in 80.3% of pre-match simulations carried out by supercomputer Opta.
- Paraguay have not won any of their previous five meetings against France and have lost both such matches at the World Cup.
- Michael Olise needs just one assist to equal the single-edition World Cup record, set by Pelé (6) in 1970.
Paraguay will hope to claim another famous World Cup scalp when they meet tournament favorites France in the round of 16 on Sunday.
Gustavo Alfaro’s side travel to Philadelphia having stunned four-time champions Germany with a 4-3 victory on penalties, following a 1-1 draw in 120 minutes of action.
Paraguay had only made it out of the knockout stages of the World Cup once before, and that too thanks to a 5-3 penalty shootout victory over Japan in the 2010 round of 16. They will now attempt to reach the quarterfinals for only the second time, having achieved that feat 16 years ago.
Although France are Opta supercomputer favorites to win the tournament, Alfaro will now prepare another eye-catching surprise, and his plans could revolve around Julio Enciso.
He was involved in more goals (3 – 1 goal, 2 assists), made more shots (8), created more chances (6), made more touches in the opponent’s box (11) and completed more dribbles (12) than any other Paraguayan player at this World Cup.
Enciso’s opening goal against Germany marked Paraguay’s first round of 16 goal in history, having failed in their previous five such encounters.
But it wasn’t just in the round of 16 that Alfaro’s side struggled in attack. Paraguay have not scored more than once in their last seven matches in FIFA’s flagship competition.
In fact, Paraguay have scored 33 goals in 31 World Cup matches overall (1.1 per match), with only South Korea having a lower average among nations having played more than 30 matches in the tournament (1.0 – 41 in 41).
We can say that France does not have the same problems at the top. Kylian Mbappé put two goals on target and Bradley Barcola also found the net in a comfortable 3-0 win over Sweden in Tuesday’s round of 16.
With Mbappé (8), Ousmane Dembélé (6) and Michael Olise (5) stealing the show, France are the first team to have as many as three players with more than 5 goals at a World Cup since Brazil in 2002 (Ronaldo 8, Rivaldo 6, Ronaldinho 5).
France has scored more than 3 goals in its four matches in this year’s tournament. However, only two nations have ever scored three or more goals in five matches during a single edition of the competition (Germany in 1954 and Brazil in 1970).
Deschamps can expect to match that goalscoring record here, led by Mbappé and Olise. The Bayern Munich winger already has five assists, the most by a player in a single World Cup since Thomas Häßler for Germany in 1994.
Olise’s creative return is also the largest in open play ever recorded in a tournament (since 1966), along with the German Pierre Littbarski (1982) and the Brazilian Pelé (1970). Pelé is the only player to have totaled more assists in a single World Cup tournament (6 in 1970).
So, with this depth of offensive talent, Deschamps will want to become the first head coach to win 10 World Cup knockout matches. He has won nine of his previous 11 such clashes in the competition.
It’s also difficult to see Deschamps making history, given that France have won each of their last seven World Cup round of 16 matches. They were last eliminated in the 16-team round of 16 in 1934, when they lost 3-2 to Austria after extra time.
Paraguay vs. France Face to face
This will be the sixth meeting between the two men in all competitions, and a third World Cup clash.
France won the previous two final meetings, 7-3 in 1958 and 1-0 in 1998, the latter with Deschamps as captain in Aimé Jacquet’s team.
The Blues remain undefeated against Paraguay (3 wins, 2 draws), although this is the first meeting between the two teams since France’s 5-0 friendly victory in June 2017.
France have also not lost a FIFA World Cup match, excluding penalties, against a South American opponent since a 2-1 defeat to Argentina in the group stage in 1978. Since then, they are unbeaten in 11 such matches (W6, D5).
Paraguay vs. France Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see anything other than a victory for France, who won within 90 minutes in a whopping 80.3% of 25,000 pre-match simulations.
Paraguay had just a 6.9% chance of winning in normal time, while the draw – and the possibility of another penalty shootout – came in 12.8% of simulations based on the data.
Overall, France has a dominant 86.8% probability of reaching the quarter-finals, far ahead of Paraguay’s 13.2% for a quarter-final appearance.
Paraguay vs. France Squads
Paraguay: Roberto Fernández, Orlando Gill, Gastón Olveira, Gustavo Velázquez, Omar Alderete, Juan José Cáceres, Fabián Balbuena, Júnior Alonso, José Canale, Gustavo Gómez, Alexandro Maidana, Diego Gómez, Mauricio, Andrés Cubas, Damián Bobadilla, Alejandro Romero, Julio Enciso, Braian Ojeda, Matías Galarza, Ramon Sosa, Antonio Sanabria, Miguel Almiron, Alex Arce, Gabriel Avalos, Gustavo Caballero, Isidro Pitta.
France: Brice Samba, Mike Maignan, Robin Risser, Malo Gusto, Lucas Digne, Dayot Upamecano, Jules Koundé, Ibrahima Konaté, William Saliba, Théo Hernández, Lucas Hernández, Maxence Lacroix, Manu Koné, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Michael Olise, Admery-Adriot-Raïreyan, Zairean, Cherki, Maghnes Akliouche, Ousmane Dembélé, Marcus Thuram, Kylian Mbappé, Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué, Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Paraguay vs. France Planned lineups
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