Co-hosts Mexico will look to continue their impressive FIFA World Cup campaign when they face Ecuador in the round of 16.
Mexico versus Ecuador: the key information
- Pre-match simulations from supercomputer Opta give Mexico the advantage with a 46.4% win probability in 90 minutes, compared to 24.4% for Ecuador.
- As hosts, Mexico lost just one of 12 matches at the FIFA World Cup (W8, D3), a 4–1 loss to Italy in the 1970 quarter-finals.
- After beating Germany, Ecuador hopes to win two matches in a single World Cup for the second time after 2006 (against Poland and Costa Rica).
Mexico will hope to extend their flawless start to the FIFA World Cup when they face Ecuador in the round of 16 at the Estadio Azteca on Tuesday.
Tournament co-hosts Mexico won Group A by beating Czechia 3-0 after beating South Africa and South Korea without conceding a goal.
Mateo Chávez gave El Tri the lead against Czechia before Julián Quiñones became the first player to score more than once for Mexico in a single World Cup since Javier Hernández in 2010. Quiñones will now look to become the second Mexican player to score in three matches at a single World Cup, after Luis Hernández in 1998.
It is the first time since 1986 – when it last hosted the competition – that Mexico has gone three consecutive World Cup matches without conceding a goal. They never kept four clean sheets in a row in a single edition.
Their impressive debut adds to a strong record in front of their own fans at the World Cup, having lost just one of their 12 matches – a 4-1 loss to Italy in the 1970 quarter-finals. They have a win rate of 67% (8 wins, 3 draws) on home turf, 43% more than their record elsewhere (12 wins from 51 matches).
However, El Tri have the worst winning percentage of any team to have played at least five knockout matches in the competition, winning just one of their last 10 (D2, L7).
In the previous nine times they have reached the round of 16, they have only progressed once: in the round of 16 against Bulgaria in 1986 – a match which also took place at the Azteca.
Ecuador proved more than up to the challenge, beating Germany 2-1 to secure their place in the round of 32.
Unfazed by Leroy Sané’s second-minute goal, Ecuador hit back quickly through Nilson Angulo and won the match when Gonzalo Plata beat Manuel Neuer to the ball and scored the winner.
This result makes Ecuador the second team of the 21st century to go goalless in their first two group matches but reach the round of 16, replicating Greece’s feat in 2014.
The South American nation has only appeared in the World Cup round of 16 once, with that appearance ending in a 1-0 defeat to England in the round of 16 in 2006.
Sebastián Beccacece’s team will likely face that in Mexico City, but they showed aggression when they didn’t have the ball. Only Uruguay (520) and Canada (488) exerted more high-intensity pressures in the opponent’s half (444) in the group stage, while only Turkey (164) gained possession more times through high-intensity pressures (150).
Both teams will be at full strength, with no injury or suspension issues to contend with.
Javier Aguirre is expected to reinstate Raúl Jiménez into the starting XI after resting the striker against Czechia, while Raul Rangel is expected to continue in goal despite being replaced so that legendary goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa can take the field.
The winners’ reward will be a return to Azteca for a round of 16 clash against England or DR Congo.
Mexico vs. Ecuador Face to face
Mexico and Ecuador have met once before at the World Cup, with the former winning 2-1 in a group match in 2002.
The two nations have drawn each of their last three meetings in all competitions, suggesting an extension may well be on the cards.
Mexico, however, struggled against South American teams at the World Cup, winning once in 14 games (3 draws, 10 losses). That victory, however, was in 2002 against Ecuador.
Mexico vs. Ecuador Prediction
The co-hosts are the favorites for victory according to the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 pre-match simulations.
Mexico has come out on top in 46.4% of projections, giving it a win probability nearly double that of Ecuador.
The probability of an Ecuador victory was calculated at 24.4%, but 29.2% of simulations resulted in a draw in 90 minutes.
The supercomputer gives Mexico a 60.0% chance of advancing to the round of 16 overall (including overtime and penalty shootouts), while Ecuador has a 40.0% chance of doing so.
Mexico vs. Ecuador Squads
Mexico: Raúl Rangel, Carlos Acevedo, Guillermo Ochoa, Jorge Sánchez, César Montes, Johan Vásquez, Israel Reyes, Mateo Chávez, Jesús Gallardo, Edson Álvarez, Érik Lira, Luis Romo, Álvaro Fidalgo, Orbelín Pineda, Obed Vargas, Gilberto Mora, César Huerta, Luis Chávez, Brian Gutiérrez, Raúl Jiménez, Alexis Vega, Santiago Giménez, Armando González, Julián Quiñones, Guillermo Martínez, Roberto Alvarado.
Ecuador: Hernán Galíndez, Moisés Ramírez, Gonzalo Valle, Félix Torres, Piero Hincapié, Joel Ordóñez, Willian Pacho, Pervis Estupiñán, Ángelo Preciado, Jackson Porozo, Yaimar Medina, Jordy Alcívar, Kendry Páez, Pedro Vite, Denil Castillo, Alan Franco, Moisés Caicedo, Anthony Valencia, John Yeboah, Kevin Rodríguez, Enner Valencia, Alan Minda, Jordy Caicedo, Gonzalo Plata, Nilson Angulo, Jeremy Arévalo.
Mexico vs. Ecuador Planned lineups
Do you like that? Add Opta Analyst as your preferred source by clicking here.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts on XInstagram, TikTok and Facebook.
PakarPBN
A Private Blog Network (PBN) is a collection of websites that are controlled by a single individual or organization and used primarily to build backlinks to a “money site” in order to influence its ranking in search engines such as Google. The core idea behind a PBN is based on the importance of backlinks in Google’s ranking algorithm. Since Google views backlinks as signals of authority and trust, some website owners attempt to artificially create these signals through a controlled network of sites.
In a typical PBN setup, the owner acquires expired or aged domains that already have existing authority, backlinks, and history. These domains are rebuilt with new content and hosted separately, often using different IP addresses, hosting providers, themes, and ownership details to make them appear unrelated. Within the content published on these sites, links are strategically placed that point to the main website the owner wants to rank higher. By doing this, the owner attempts to pass link equity (also known as “link juice”) from the PBN sites to the target website.
The purpose of a PBN is to give the impression that the target website is naturally earning links from multiple independent sources. If done effectively, this can temporarily improve keyword rankings, increase organic visibility, and drive more traffic from search results.
